{
  "projectId": "gnosis-prediction-agent",
  "title": "Gnosis Prediction Market Agent · 源码静态检查与执行边界",
  "summary": "这是多种预测策略的开发框架。执行接口依赖 Prediction Market Agent Tooling；仓库还包含明确的随机抛硬币基线，不能把所有 Agent 都理解成有预测优势的成品。",
  "scope": "固定 commit 的官方源码 ZIP 的 REA 文件清单与 Python 源码检查；未取得对应可执行发行包，未运行预测或交易。",
  "status": "partial",
  "analyzedAt": "2026-10-13",
  "tool": {
    "name": "REA",
    "version": "6.4.0"
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "title": "REA 已固定源码归档身份与文件清单",
      "detail": "inspect_artifact 返回 261 个内容节点、282 个文件/目录出现项。这个结果证明本次检查输入的身份和结构，不证明 Python、Go 或 Rust 代码运行行为，也不等同于完成产品逆向。",
      "evidenceType": "observed",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_9a23e95133df36d21a4ecb7fa6b95039f99e4aaa418d58d372616a41d226a0ef"
      ],
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://codeload.github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/zip/de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "执行接口委托给外部 PMAT 依赖",
      "detail": "run_agent.py 从 Prediction Market Agent Tooling 导入 DeployableAgent，最终以所选 MarketType 调用 Agent.run。pyproject 对该依赖使用 >=0.69.38；本次未安装或检查具体解析出的依赖版本，因此项目源码本身不能覆盖完整交易执行边界。",
      "evidenceType": "code_inference",
      "evidenceIds": [],
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/blob/de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7/prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py#L13",
        "https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/blob/de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7/prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py#L230",
        "https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/blob/de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7/pyproject.toml#L30"
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "CoinFlip Agent 是随机基线",
      "detail": "coinflip_agent/deploy.py 通过 random.choice([True, False]) 决定方向，并返回 confidence=0.5。其最高流动性变体配置每次最多两个市场、同市场间隔 14 天。这是可定位的实验策略，并非经过验证的预测能力或收益记录。",
      "evidenceType": "code_inference",
      "evidenceIds": [],
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/blob/de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7/prediction_market_agent/agents/coinflip_agent/deploy.py#L15"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "REA 对本项目完成的是源码 ZIP 的文件清单，未建立 Python 调用图或动态执行证据。",
    "查询 GitHub latest release 和 PyPI prediction-market-agent 时未取得可分析的发行包；这不等于证明其他分发渠道不存在。",
    "未运行项目、依赖、回测或链上交互；不评价预测准确率与收益。"
  ],
  "artifacts": [
    {
      "label": "官方源码归档 · de67c4cdb00b",
      "url": "https://codeload.github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/tar.gz/de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7",
      "sha256": "78db1831732f2f633bbd9fc85584e9994b5df00114fe27c2a2b6dff28498fab2",
      "bytes": 4379762
    },
    {
      "label": "REA 输入：官方源码 ZIP · de67c4cdb00b",
      "url": "https://codeload.github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/zip/de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7",
      "sha256": "30d3db8ecbff486d5c7c928cfa6e777860157cff3b5c217b293bc32f175fcd07",
      "bytes": 4505186
    }
  ],
  "evidenceIds": [
    "ev_9a23e95133df36d21a4ecb7fa6b95039f99e4aaa418d58d372616a41d226a0ef"
  ],
  "reportUrl": "/research/rea/gnosis-prediction-agent.json",
  "methodology": "REA 原始输出负责产物身份、文件结构或原生元数据；code_inference 结论来自带固定版本引用的源码阅读。未完成动态运行、实盘测试、完整安全审计或收益验证。",
  "sourceCommit": "de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7",
  "releasedArtifactAvailable": false,
  "analysisInput": {
    "sha256": "30d3db8ecbff486d5c7c928cfa6e777860157cff3b5c217b293bc32f175fcd07",
    "format": "zip",
    "evidenceId": "ev_9a23e95133df36d21a4ecb7fa6b95039f99e4aaa418d58d372616a41d226a0ef",
    "operation": "inspect_artifact",
    "publicSourceUrls": [
      "https://codeload.github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/zip/de67c4cdb00b8c77e5f03eec127ad5f241e849e7"
    ]
  },
  "analysisAttempts": [
    {
      "command": "rea inspect-artifact <gnosis-prediction-agent source directory> --format json",
      "result": "unavailable",
      "code": "target_unavailable",
      "reason": "REA CLI 的此入口拒绝普通目录；已改用明确记录的 ZIP 输入。"
    },
    {
      "command": "rea inspect-artifact gnosis-prediction-agent-source.zip --format json",
      "result": "completed",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_9a23e95133df36d21a4ecb7fa6b95039f99e4aaa418d58d372616a41d226a0ef"
      ],
      "coverage": "public_source_archive_inventory"
    },
    {
      "command": "rea import-reference-source <gnosis fixed source directory> --format json",
      "result": "completed",
      "coverage": "historical_reference_only",
      "evidenceIds": [],
      "reason": "该操作返回 HistoricalSourceGraph，不返回 ev ID；未编造证据编号。"
    }
  ]
}